NBA Survival Guide: Here's your reintroduction to the top 6 title contenders in 202526 Dan Devine October 21, 2025 at 12:14 AM 0 Since we last experienced NBA basketball games that count, we have seen: 29 trades involving 72 players — highlighted by the first seventeam deal in NBA history — and a ve...
- - NBA Survival Guide: Here's your reintroduction to the top 6 title contenders in 2025-26
Dan Devine October 21, 2025 at 12:14 AM
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Since we last experienced NBA basketball games that count, we have seen:
29 trades involving 72 players — highlighted by the first seven-team deal in NBA history — and a veritable armada of future draft picks;
An estimated $1.4 billion in contracts signed in free agency;
17 extensions of existing contracts totaling an additional $2.52 billion, headlined by Thunder MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's four-year supermax pact — a deal projected to pay him nearly $76 million in its final season;
Zero trees planted.
That's a ton of business to sift through as we get set for the start of the 2025-26 NBA season and try to do some back-of-the-envelope math on which teams we expect to find — and expect to find themselves — in championship contention come June. So, as I've done at the outset of each of the last four seasons, with all of our hopes still high for the potential outcomes of all those just-signed deals and newly consummated trades, unsullied by high-velocity contact with the brick wall of reality: Let's get to siftin'.
(Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
According to BetMGM, six teams enter the season with championship odds of 15-to-1 (+1500) or better. Those six teams feature eight of the 15 members of last season's All-NBA teams … and they also feature major questions that must be answered between now and the postseason. (They also don't feature a few teams of particular interest that we'll hit in an Honorable Mentions section.)
Let's get reacclimated with the NBA's expected upper echelon by considering the cases for and against those top six teams. We begin where last season ended — and where, it seems, the league's future starts:
Oklahoma City Thunder (+240)
The case for: They return 95% of the minutes (and 99% of the postseason minutes) from a team that finished No. 1 in the NBA in defensive efficiency and No. 2 on offense, that posted the highest average margin of victory of all time, and that won the NBA championship with one of the league's youngest rosters. Seems like a good start!
The Thunder have essentially everything you could ever ask for in a modern two-way basketball team: an MVP in his prime (Gilgeous-Alexander), rising All-Star/All-NBA/All-Defensive-caliber wingmen (Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren), rock-solid complementary star-in-their-role players (Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe), an exciting young player capable of jumping up a level (Cason Wallace), an untapped resource waiting to be trotted out (2024 lottery pick Nikola Topić) and a creative coach adept at both motivating his players and problem-solving on the fly (Mark Daigneault). Oh, and on the off chance they find themselves lacking somewhere, they also have 13 tradeable first-round picks and 16 second-round picks in their war chest with which to maneuver.
Last year's Thunder became the seventh team to win 68 games in the regular season — and that was with Holmgren and Hartenstein combining to miss 75 games. Get healthier seasons for the two big men, and OKC could absolutely threaten the 2015-16 Warriors' all-time record of 73 wins, and enter the postseason as the odds-on favorite to be our first repeat champion since 2018.
Here's everything you for the 2025-26 season. ((Mallory Bielecki/Yahoo Sports Illustration))
The case against: Well, we haven't had a repeat champion since 2018, for one thing. Welcome to Adam Silver's Parity Party! Feel free to help yourself to some snacks on the table over there. (They're … not great, to be honest. Fine. They're fine. They taste fine.)
Since the Shaq-Kobe-Phil-era Lakers' millennium-opening threepeat, we've seen just three champions successfully run it back: the Kobe-Pau Lakers (2009, 2010), the Big Three Heat (2012, 2013) and the KD Warriors (2017, 2018). It's not easy to withstand consecutive 100-plus-game seasons without something going awry: a brutally timed injury to an indispensable star, an unlucky bounce at the absolute worst moment, a more-difficult-than-it-appeared-on-paper matchup against a red-hot opponent, etc.
Being so young, so deep and so well-positioned to make a big move if needed could help Oklahoma City overcome those concerns. It can only take one bad break to make the war rig wobble, though — especially in a Western Conference that looks absolutely loaded for bear.
Speaking of which:
Denver Nuggets (+550)
The case for: He's 6-foot-11, 284 pounds, and he's the best basketball player in the world.
In the past five years, Nikola Jokić has won the NBA's Most Valuable Player award three times and been runner-up twice. Last year, he became the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double, carrying a Nuggets team embroiled in enough dysfunction to get both the head coach and GM fired to 50 wins and a top-four seed. After dispatching the Clippers in Round 1, and despite Michael Porter Jr. playing with one arm and Aaron Gordon playing on one leg, Jokić averaged 28-14-6 to push the Thunder to seven games in the conference semifinals — the kind of steel-sharpens-steel moment of existential crisis that a young team like the Thunder must survive as a rite of passage in pursuit of a championship.
Put Jokić on the floor, and you're essentially guaranteed 50ish wins, a top-five offense and a matchup advantage against any opponent you face in the postseason. Put the right pieces around him, and you can harbor dreams of hoisting the Larry O'B.
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The Nuggets are betting that a healthier Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, returning favorite Bruce Brown, new arrivals Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valančiūnas, and rising wings Christian Braun, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther will represent the best supporting cast Jokić has enjoyed since at least the 2023 championship season — that any rebounding hit Denver takes after the departures of Michael Porter Jr. and Russell Westbrook will be more than mitigated by increased 3-point-shooting volume and improved overall team defense. If those wagers cash in, and the Nuggets get to springtime with a two or three seed and more depth than they had this past April, then I'm not sure anybody — even the Thunder — wants to see the lightning coming.
The case against: It feels at least as likely that Johnson (whose offensive rise the past two seasons came in essentially consequence-free games in Brooklyn), Brown (who hasn't done too much since leaving Denver in free agency three summers ago), Valančiūnas and Hardaway Jr. are fine but not needle-moving additions for a second unit that has bled points nearly every year since Jokić's ascent. In a conference this tough, and when taking aim at an opponent as complete as OKC, the margins are extremely thin; a leaky bench, a shaky series from Murray or a hitch in Gordon's giddy-up could be all it takes to fall short of the conference finals for the third straight season.
Cleveland Cavaliers (+750)
The case for: Cleveland was arguably the second-best team in the NBA last season — a 64-win monster that, under new Kenny Atkinson, finished with the league's best offense and the No. 1 seed in the East. The team that beat the Cavaliers in the playoffs lost its best player and starting center. The team that beat the Cavs in the playoffs the year before that also lost its best player and entire center rotation. The Cavs split two meetings against OKC last season, and pretty much beat the brakes of everybody else — including their chief rival for the top spot in the East this season, the Knicks, whom they swept 4-0 in the regular season.
So, y'know: What's not to like?
Donovan Mitchell learned that less is more, throttling down his minutes, shots, touches and usage to help foster the growth of his talented teammates, most notably rising star big man Evan Mobley. The calculated stepback splashed through: Mitchell topped 70 games for the first time in six seasons while remaining as productive as ever on a per-minute/per-possession basis, en route to finishing fifth in MVP voting and earning his first All-NBA First Team selection. In the meantime, Garland returned to All-Star form, Mobley burst into bloom as Defensive Player of the Year and an All-NBA Second Team pick, Jarrett Allen protected the paint, and an attack predicated on speed, ball and body movement, and long-range bombing took the NBA by storm.
While you can't just hand-wave away the Pacers drilling the Cavs out of the second round in five games, you can offer up injuries to Garland, Mobley, Mitchell and De'Andre Hunter as significant factors contributing to their early ouster. Get those main dudes healthy come springtime, get more reps with those main dudes and trade-deadline-acquisition Hunter — the core four plus Hunter played just 45 minutes together last season — and get a jolt from incoming two-way playmaker Lonzo Ball, who profiles as a perfect fit for the uptempo, hit-ahead-heavy, quick-decision style that Atkinson wants to play …
… and maybe, after three straight frustratingly short postseason showings, this is finally the year the Cavs break through.
The case against: Replicating last season's sensational start could be a very tall order, particularly with starters Garland and Max Strus both still working their way back from offseason surgeries. It looks like Atkinson's going to roll with Hunter and re-signed shooter Sam Merrill alongside Mitchell, Mobley and Allen in the first five; that quintet played 10 total possessions together last season, so catching a rhythm might take a minute.
While Atkinson's waiting for his top guys, the loss of top reserve scorer/playmaker Ty Jerome in free agency could hurt quite a bit, especially if Ball — who has played more than 55 games just once since being drafted in 2017, missed two full seasons due to a left knee injury and missed the final six weeks of last season with a wrist issue — can't stay on the court. (Atkinson has said that, in an attempt to increase the likelihood that Lonzo stays operational, he'll start the season capped at around 20 minutes a night and will skip one end of back-to-back sets.)
As perfect a fit as Hunter — who shot the leather off the ball in preseason — seemed to be after the trade deadline, we still haven't seen him be a major postseason factor for a team of consequence; between him, the always-game but somewhat up-and-down Strus and the oft-injured Dean Wade, the Cavs still feel a little shaky in matchups against top-flight perimeter opposition. (Keep an eye on 2024 draftee Jaylon Tyson, who should get some early opportunities, but who will have to consistently make threes to keep getting them.)
Beyond all that: Between improved injury luck and the smooth-as-silk adjustment to Atkinson's system, last year was damn near perfect for Cleveland, right up until it wasn't. Getting that much to break right again, and to keep it breaking right through May and June, might be an awful lot to ask … and if it doesn't, then it might be awfully tough to justify keeping together the NBA's most expensive roster.
New York Knicks (+900)
The case for: They just got within two wins of the NBA Finals and, like Cleveland, the team that eliminated them lost its best player and starting center. And while plenty has changed all over the place since 2023, I don't think the Knicks would enter a playoff matchup against the Cavs lacking confidence that, when push comes to shove, they can push and shove the Cavs into a locker again.
Mitchell Robinson has some thoughts on the Cavaliers getting rattled in the paint 🥶 pic.twitter.com/LACIETHDCv
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) April 22, 2023
New York returns the core of last spring's Eastern Conference finals team: the All-NBA battery of Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, ace 3-and-D wings OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, do-it-all energizer Josh Hart and monster offensive rebounder/vertical spacer Mitchell Robinson. It also features the most depth of any Knicks roster in ages, with offseason signings Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele joining holdover guard Deuce McBride in what should be a formidable second unit — one that, under new head coach Mike Brown, the Knicks might actually use this season.
Reasonable people can disagree on the merits of firing Tom Thibodeau after the famously hard-charging coach led New York to its first conference finals appearance in 25 years. In successor Mike Brown, though, Knicks brass believes it's found the right coach with the right formula — faster pace, more of Brunson operating off the ball, more creative approaches to maximizing the Knicks offensive talent, more schematic flexibility and experimentation — to get the 'Bockers within arm's reach of the franchise's first championship since 1973.
The case against: Maybe going from Thibodeau to Brown isn't the upgrade that Leon Rose and Co. seem to think it is. Maybe the peccadilloes of New York's prospective fifth starters — neither Robinson nor Hart are the kind of shooters who can prevent opponents from stationing a wing on Towns to neutralize the Brunson-KAT two-man game, while the plus-shooting McBride would make for a smaller backcourt pairing with Brunson (though the numbers have always been good when they've played together) — mean that a starting five that looks like it should be a killer lineup never quite materializes into one. Maybe Yabusele and Clarkson won't be able to meaningfully move the needle in postseason minutes.
And, more than that, maybe any attempt to maximize the offensive partnership of Brunson and Towns is doomed to fail by the defensive vulnerability of that combination — a pick-and-roll pain point that elite competition will repeatedly press in the season's biggest moments. Helping/hiding one negative defender in the playoffs is hard enough; covering up for two is exponentially tougher. If Brown can't find a way to do it, and the offense isn't lights-out/best-in-the-NBA caliber to overcome it, then for everything else that's changed about the Knicks, their final fate might wind up being exactly the same.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+1300)
The case for: They're coming off consecutive Western Conference finals appearances, with series wins over Jokić's Nuggets, the Luka-LeBron Lakers and the Warriors over the past two postseasons. They were one of four teams to finish in the top eight in offensive and defensive efficiency last season, along with Oklahoma City, Boston and Cleveland — a pretty good baseline from which to mount a push for contention.
After re-signing both Julius Randle and Naz Reid, Minnesota returns the top seven contributors from a team that finished with 49 wins and the sixth seed in the West, but had the point differential of a 53-win squad. You can chalk that shortfall up primarily to a 20-26 record in games where the score was within five points in the final five minutes; "clutch" performance tends to be fairly volatile from year to year, so an uptick in close-and-late contests wouldn't be too much of a shocker.
You know what also wouldn't be a massive surprise? Anthony Edwards mounting a serious case for a spot on the All-NBA First Team and MVP ballot.
Over the final 40 games of last season, Edwards averaged 29.3 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game on a .607 true shooting percentage (which factors in 2-point, 3-point and free-throw accuracy) — mammoth numbers that only 10 players in NBA history have averaged over the course of a full season. Those 10 players — Larry Bird, Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić — are the sort of immortals with whom Edwards, who just turned 24, is looking to keep company. Continuing his year-over-year improvements as a scorer, 3-point shooter, playmaker and off-ball defender could get him that much closer to joining them … and, if a defense led by interior stopper Rudy Gobert and perimeter menace Jaden McDaniels can remain one of the NBA's best, maybe the Wolves can get to the championship round for the first time in franchise history.
The case against: If Ant can't vault into the SGA-Jokić-Luka-Giannis tier, then the Wolves' supporting cast will need to be even better than it was last year. That's a potentially dicey proposition, given the prospect of Randle waning after a strong first season in the Twin Cities; the uncertainty of replacing departed two-way wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker with youngsters Terrence Shannon and Jaylen Clark; and the potential for the 33-year-old Gobert and 38-year-old Mike Conley to take a step back. Wolves president Tim Connelly traded up to draft Rob Dillingham two years back with the need for a transition plan at the point in mind; if the 20-year-old isn't ready to step into a significantly larger role, the Wolves might not have quite enough ball-handling, shot creation and complementary juice alongside Edwards to take the next step.
Houston Rockets (+1400)
The case for: They were a 50-win team with a top-five defense that made the playoffs for the first time since James Harden skedaddled and took the Steph-Jimmy-Draymond Warriors to seven games in the first round. Houston fell short in large part because, as much fun as its surprising near-top-10 offense was to watch, it subsisted on turnovers and offensive rebounds; Ime Udoka's club just couldn't consistently generate good looks against set defenses, ranking just 22nd in half-court scoring efficiency and tied for 24th in points produced per isolation possession.
And then the Rockets traded for Kevin Durant.
Only five players in the NBA last season averaged more than 25 points per game on .600-or-higher true shooting: SGA, Jokić, Giannis, Brunson, and KD, who was the most efficient isolation scorer in the NBA last season (minimum 75 possessions finished). He's an astonishingly great cure for what ailed the Rockets last season, and while it cost them two starters (Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green) plus multiple draft picks to get him, Houston's still got the makings of a vicious supporting cast around him, headlined by rising All-Star center Alperen Şengün (fresh off a stellar run to a silver medal with Türkiye at EuroBasket 2025) and All-Defensive athletic marvel Amen Thompson.
With Şengün, Steven Adams and Clint Capela up front, this should still be the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA. With Thompson, Tari Eason and new arrival Dorian Finney-Smith, Houston should remain a meat-grinder on the perimeter for opposing offenses. With Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. manning the forward spots, the Rockets will be absolutely gigantic — especially when the 6-foot-7 Thompson slides down to the point. And when things slow down and the Rockets absolutely positively gotta have a bucket? Well, now they can throw the ball to one of the greatest absolutely, positively gotta-have-a-bucket producers in the history of the sport.
Add it all up, and the Rockets might have everything they need to make a title push …
… with one teeny, tiny exception.
The case against: Fred VanVleet tore his right ACL just before training camp and is expected to miss the entire season.
That A) really really sucks, and B) means the Rockets will enter a season of championship aspirations without their primary ball-handler, most trusted half-court organizer, highest-volume returning 3-point shooter and most decorated grown-up.
That's a lot of important stuff to be missing! And without the financial or roster flexibility to add immediate reinforcements — the Rockets can't trade any of their just-signed players until Dec. 15 and sit just $1.26 million under the $195.9 million first apron, according to Spotrac, which isn't enough money to sign a new player — they'll have to try to replace VanVleet in the aggregate. That might work out pretty well if Thompson takes the kind of Year 3 leap that so many are projecting, and if Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, can do this all season:
If they struggle to find a playmaking rhythm early, though — and if veteran backup Aaron Holiday only helps so much — then Houston runs the risk of overtaxing Durant early in the season, which could lead to diminishing returns from the 37-year-old come springtime. And a diminished KD plus young point guards handling the pressure that comes with being a primary initiator in the postseason crucible could be a recipe for Houston's hoped-for breakthrough getting broken up before the conference finals.
Honorable mentions
Hey, here's a fun fact: I've written this column four times, and each year, at least one eventual NBA Finals participant was not included in it!
Last year, the Indiana Pacers didn't make the 15-to-1 cut. The 2023 edition didn't include the Dallas Mavericks. The 2022 version didn't feature either the Denver Nuggets or Miami Heat. And the first go-round, back in 2021, didn't have the Boston Celtics on it.
Which is to say: We're almost guaranteed to see someone that you didn't just read about playing for the Larry O'B come June! (That's how probability works, right?)
The teams that didn't come in under +1500, but that bear monitoring in the big picture, include:
Los Angeles Lakers (+1600): How JJ Redick navigates the early-season absence to not-retiring/just-selling-booze sciatica sufferer LeBron James remains to be seen, and I'm not entirely sure there's a pathway to even a decent defense when L.A.'s playing its three best players together. But when healthy, in shape and engaged, Luka Dončić just might be the best basketball player on the planet … and I'm not sure if you saw the headlines this summer, but it appears that our man is healthy, in shape and engaged. (For more on the Lakers, check out Ben Rohrbach's season preview.)
Orlando Magic (+1800): What do you get when a team led by one of the NBA's best defenses, but hamstrung by a congested, 3-point-shooting-deficient offense imports one of the NBA's best high-volume, high-accuracy marksmen in Desmond Bane to run with bruising All-Star-caliber big wings Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner? The hope in Central Florida is that the answer is, "A bona fide Finals contender." (For more on the Magic, check out my season preview.)
Los Angeles Clippers (+1800): When Kawhi Leonard suited up last season, the Clips won at a 58-win pace; when he was on the floor, they had the point differential of a 66-win team. He enters the season healthy, flanked by All-NBA point guard James Harden, All-Defensive Team center Ivica Zubac, and arguably the deepest roster in the NBA, featuring new arrivals Bradley Beal, John Collins and Brook Lopez, as well as returning franchise icon Chris Paul. Yes, this team is old as hell. But it might be pretty damn awesome, too. (For more on the Clippers, check out my season preview.)
Golden State Warriors (+2500): Like the Clippers, the Warriors' chances of making a title run rest on a core of greybeards: the 35-and-older "Unction" of Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green and newcomer Al Horford. But Golden State was incredible after Jimmy's arrival last season — 27-8 when Steph, Draymond and Jimmy all played, a 63-win pace — and Horford's combination of floor-spacing, interior defense, high-IQ ball-moving and championship experience should make him a picture-perfect addition. Getting to springtime with all the old heads healthy could be exceptionally difficult. If they can, though, I'm not sure anybody in the conference really wants it with them. (For more on the Warriors, check out my season preview.)
Source: "AOL Sports"
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