SEC predictions: With each Ole Miss and Missouri loss, Florida's poach move gains traction Matt Hayes, USA TODAY October 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM 0 Ole Miss and Missouri are in the middle of a College Football Playoff push, and that can only mean one thing.
- - SEC predictions: With each Ole Miss and Missouri loss, Florida's poach move gains traction
Matt Hayes, USA TODAY October 24, 2025 at 8:00 PM
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Ole Miss and Missouri are in the middle of a College Football Playoff push, and that can only mean one thing.
Florida has this weekend become the biggest fan of Oklahoma and Vanderbilt, and any other school playing Ole Miss and Missouri hereafter. Because the more the Rebels and Tigers lose, the more their CFP chances fade.
And the easier it is for Florida to poach their coaches.
If Ole Miss and/or Missouri reach the CFP, the odds of Florida hiring away Lane Kiffin from Ole Miss or Eli Drinkwitz from Missouri are decreased because both then prove they can reach the CFP with their respective programs, and both could then demand any financial package (coaching salary and NIL commitment) to stay.
In this age of money ruling all things program building — not historical blueblood status or high school geographic recruiting footprints — anyone can change the course of history with the right coach and a boatload of cash (hello, Indiana).
Meanwhile, back in the world of those competing for something (not those replacing a coach every four years), another significant week of SEC games has arrived. Maybe more important and impactful than last week's mega slate.
On to this week's picks, where it's always the selection (not necessarily predicted winners) in bold.
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Ole Miss (+5.5) at Oklahoma: A difficult spot for an Ole Miss team that did everything right offensively for 50-plus minutes, but couldn't make a play against a leaky Georgia defense when it had to. Oklahoma's offense is better in the throw game than Georgia, and the Sooners' defense is better than Georgia's (really, it is). That doesn't sound like an optimum framework for Ole Miss.
Auburn (+3.5) at Arkansas: There are a few critical things at play here, and at the top of the list is the job security of Auburn coach Hugh Freeze. There's also the unique game between Auburn's stout defense and one of the best offensive minds in the game (interim Hogs coach Bob Petrino), who just so happens to want the Arkansas job and desperately needs a signature win to get it. While I'm not sure Auburn is remotely close to signature anymore, a win here will go a long way in Petrino's push to reclaim the job he once ran into a ditch.
Alabama (-11.5) at South Carolina: Look, I don't want to be the guy that has to say this, but when South Carolina students are protesting to fire first-year offensive coordinator Mike Shula, when uber-talented QB LaNorris Sellers has regressed under Shula, and when South Carolina has gone from trendy CFP pick to on the verge of losing eight games, somebody may be looking a little closer at the open Virginia Tech job. Before it's too late. That and Alabama is beginning to figure out the whole playing on the road thing.
Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2.5): If you're not believing in Vanderbilt now, what will it take? If you're not watching the Commodores control the lines of scrimmage against LSU, or embarrass South Carolina, or lose to Alabama only because of two critical red zone turnovers by QB Diego Pavia, you're not seeing where this is headed. If Missouri can't get chunk plays from QB Beau Pribula in the throw game, it will get out of hand quickly in Nashville.
Texas at Mississippi State (+6.5): Texas is on the verge of becoming the worst preseason No. 1 in the modern era of the sport. The Longhorns are mess offensively; they're 80th in the nation in scoring offense, and are averaging 20 points per SEC game. But it's not all struggling QB Arch Manning. The defense no longer gets consistent stops against quality opponents, and the play calling from Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian looks more odd with each passing week. Then there's Mississippi State: should've beaten Tennessee at home, should've beaten Florida in Gainesville.
Texas A&M (-2.5) at LSU: For those hoping a raucous night crowd at Tiger Stadium and a fast and athletic defense can slow unbeaten Texas A&M's momentum, I give you Week 2 at Notre Dame. A wild crowd, an athletic defense. And the Aggies scored 41. The LSU offense couldn't score 42 points in two SEC games, let alone one that could lead to all kinds of questions about the state of the program under coach Brian Kelly.
Tennessee (-8.5) at Kentucky: The Vols have an outside shot of returning to the CFP, despite last week's ugly loss to Alabama. Tennessee has two critical games against CFP contenders (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt), and both are in Knoxville. It's the winnable road games that can't be ignored: Kentucky and Florida.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Florida wants Kiffin, Drinkwitz, it needs Ole Miss, Missouri losses
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