Week 8 college football picks, predictions: Where is betting value in Ole MissGeorgia, other marquee games? Ed Feng October 15, 2025 at 10:18 PM 0 Looking for sharp college football betting information through numbers and analysis? The Power Rank member college football model comes from my backgroun...
- - Week 8 college football picks, predictions: Where is betting value in Ole Miss-Georgia, other marquee games?
Ed Feng October 15, 2025 at 10:18 PM
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Looking for sharp college football betting information through numbers and analysis?
The Power Rank member college football model comes from my background (Ph.D. in Chemical Engineering from Stanford) and uses play-by-play and market data to make spread predictions. From the start of the 2023 season through Week 7 of 2025, the model is 52.1% against the opening market (744-683 with 22 pushes for games in which the prediction differs from the market by a point or more).
In addition to the model, I research subjective factors that the model doesn't consider to make long-term profitable bets. Here are my best numbers and analysis on five key games for Week 8.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 4 Ole Miss at No. 10 Georgia (-7, 54.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Georgia 33.3, Ole Miss 25.4
Last season, QB Trinidad Chambliss threw two interceptions in his opening game, and his team Ferris State lost 19-3 to Pittsburg State in Division II. Chambliss got benched, but the starter broke his leg in the next game.
Chambliss returned as the starter and led Ferris State to a Division II national championship. Not highly recruited out of high school due to his late physical development, he parlayed this success into an offer from Ole Miss. None of this happens if the other QB doesn't break his leg.
When Ole Miss starting QB Austin Simmons got hurt against Kentucky, Chambliss took over and shined. In my yards per pass attempt metric (YPPA), Chambliss is predicted to throw for 10.2 YPPA against an average FBS defense. Despite the expected regression due to a small sample size of 135 attempts, these are excellent results (6.4 YPPA is the college football average).
In addition, Georgia's pass defense has struggled this season, as the Bulldogs rank 82nd in those same adjusted yards per pass attempt. Tennessee QB Joey Aguilar threw for 9.8 YPPA against Georgia but has only exceeded this rate against UAB in his other games.
The Ole Miss defense isn't as good as last season after five starters were picked in the NFL draft. They rank 42nd in my adjusted yards per play compared to seventh last season. A competent Georgia offense should be able to score at home.
My numbers like Georgia by 7.9 points. However, with the emergence of the Ole Miss offense, I think the better play is the total, as my numbers predict 58.7 points.
Bet: Over 54.5
No. 10 LSU at No. 17 Vanderbilt (-2.5, 48.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Vanderbilt 27.6, LSU 27.4
Led by QB Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt's offense has been excellent this season, ranking sixth in my adjusted yards per play. RB Sedrick Alexander has rushed for 6.6 yards per carry this season, and TE Eli Stowers will look to get back on track after two drops against Alabama in their last game.
LSU's defense has been great this season, ranking eighth in my adjusted yards per play. However, they rank worse by success rate, and Vanderbilt should put up points in this game.
LSU's offense has been disappointing this season. The Tigers have yet to score more than 20 points against an SEC opponent or Clemson and rank 31st in my adjusted yards per play, but QB Garrett Nussmeier is an NFL prospect. The LSU offense should score against a Vanderbilt defense that ranks 46th in my adjusted yards per play and even worse in success rate.
My model favors Vanderbilt ever so slightly to win, but also predicts 55 total points.
Bet: Over 48.5
No. 9 Texas Tech (-9.5, 49.5) at No. 21 Arizona State
The Power Rank prediction: Texas Tech 34.6, Arizona State 25.7
Coming into the season, Arizona State and Texas Tech were considered the favorites to win the Big 12, along with Kansas State. With half the season gone, it's a bit jarring to see the road team favored by almost double digits in this game.
Arizona State, without QB Sam Leavitt, got crushed 42-10 by Utah last week. Even with Leavitt in the prior games, the Sun Devils had struggled this season with a loss at Mississippi State and sneaking by Baylor and TCU by three points each.
By contrast, Texas Tech made a statement with a 34-10 win on the road at Utah. The Red Raiders' commitment to use NIL money to buy the best possible roster has yielded stellar returns. Texas Tech ranks seventh in my member college football numbers. Players like edge David Bailey, a transfer from Stanford, has 9.0 sacks this season.
Both starting QBs are questionable to play. Texas Tech's Behren Morton got hurt in the first half against Kansas last week. Will Hammond came in and struggled in the passing game, although he was spectacular in the second half against Utah. Leavitt is questionable but did return to practice this week.
My numbers favor Texas Tech by 8.9 points, but the uncertainty at QB makes this a difficult handicap.
Bet: Pass
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama (-8.5, 58.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Alabama 35.0, Tennessee 27.6
The Tennessee pass offense has been a pleasant surprise this season. QB Joey Aguilar leads the ninth-best offense by my adjusted yards per pass attempt. WR Chris Brazzell has become an NFL prospect, and sophomore WR Braylon Staley has even more targets than Brazzell. Both players are in their second year with the Vols' program.
Tennessee faces an excellent Alabama pass defense that ranks 16th in my adjusted yards per pass attempt.
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Tennessee's defense hasn't been as good this season, ranking 31st in my adjusted yards per play metric. The Alabama offense has improved after an opening-week dud against Florida State, a game that seems more like an outlier with every passing week. QB Ty Simpson is starting to appear in the first round of NFL mock drafts.
My numbers like Alabama by 7.4 points at home.
Bet: Lean Tennessee +8.5
Washington at Michigan (-5.5, 50.5)
The Power Rank prediction: Michigan 29.3, Washington 25.6
My model has Michigan by 3.7 points in this game, which suggests value on Washington +5.5. This seems especially juicy after Michigan's 31-14 loss at USC last week. However, there are two things to consider.
First, Michigan has a circadian advantage over Washington. As Dr. Cathy Goldstein of the University of Michigan explained to me, Washington will play at noon Eastern which is 9 a.m. Pacific time, early for the college male crowd.
Second, Michigan's offense is evolving every week as players step up to help QB Bryce Underwood. Freshman WR Andrew Marsh barely played the first four games but has emerged with 13 targets and 218 receiving yards the past two games.
RB Justice Haynes missed the majority of the USC game with an injury. However, he looks likely to play against Washington.
Bet: Pass
Ed Feng runs The Power Rank, a football analytics and betting information site.
Source: "AOL Sports"
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