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Your Social Security reality check: 5 steps to estimate what's coming your way
Kat Aoki October 26, 2025 at 2:49 AM
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Your Social Security reality check: 5 steps to estimate what's coming your way (MaFelipe via Getty Images)
Many people have no clue what their Social Security benefits will actually be when they've clocked out of work for the last time — and that's a problem. While these benefits might replace only 40% of your pre-retirement income, for many Americans, they're still the backbone of retirement security. Here's how to crack the code and get a realistic estimate of your future benefits.
⭐️ Must read: 7 big changes coming to Social Security in 2026 (one that could shrink your check)
Step 1: Set up your Social Security account
If you haven't already, set up your Social Security account at SSA.gov using either an ID.me or Login.gov login. There's no age requirement, and it takes about 10 minutes and requires ID verification, so have your driver's license and Social Security number handy.
Once you're in, you can access:
Your official Social Security statement. Download this comprehensive document to see your projected retirement benefits at different claiming ages — 62, full retirement age and 70 — plus disability and survivor benefit estimates.
Your benefit verification letter. This official letter confirms any current Social Security benefits and your monthly benefit. It's often required for loan applications, housing assistance or other financial services that need proof of income.
Your full earnings history. This is your complete year-by-year earnings record going back to when you first started working, displaying exactly what Social Security has on file for calculating your benefits. You can spot missing wages, errors or years where earnings weren't properly credited to your account.
With your Social Security account, you can set up your paperwork preference — email, paper or both — order a replacement Social Security card, apply for Survivor's Benefits and more.
🔍 Read more: Will Social Security run out of money?' 5 common fears vs. facts
Step 2: Double-check your earnings history
Your Social Security statement shows your earnings history for every year you've ever worked. And while it might look complete, mistakes and errors are surprisingly common.
Scan it for years showing $0 earnings when you actually worked or earnings that look suspiciously low. Your benefits are based on your highest 35 years of earnings, which means every dollar counts.
⚠️ If you spot errors, don't ignore them. Call the Social Security Administration at 800-772-1213, complete the SSA's online support form or visit your local SSA office with documentation like W-2s, tax returns or pay stubs. Any corrections can significantly boost your future benefits.
🔍 Read more: Retirees warn: Don't make these 9 Social Security mistakes
Step 3: Get to know the three ages that matter
Your Social Security benefit amount isn't fixed — rather, what you receive depends on when you claim. This single timing decision can cost or gain you thousands of dollars over your retirement.
Plan around these three critical retirement ages:
Early retirement (62). You can start collecting at 62, but your benefits are permanently cut by as much as 30%, depending on your birthdate and full retirement age. And this reduction isn't temporary — it lasts for life.
Full retirement age (66 to 67). This "normal" retirement age varies based on your birthdate. If you were born in 1960 or later, your full retirement age is 67. Claim at this age, and you get 100% of your calculated benefit.
Delayed retirement (70): For every year you wait between full retirement age and 70, your benefits increase by about 8%. That's a guaranteed return you won't find anywhere else.
⏰ Your timing decision is huge. File at 62 instead of your full retirement age, and your $2,000 benefit shrinks to $1,400 — that's $600 you'll lose permanently.
🔍 Read more: 90% of Americans break this Social Security 'rule' — here's why they're right
Step 4: Calculate your future monthly benefits
Your Social Security statement shows estimated benefits at different claiming ages, but it assumes the same job, same salary, same everything until full retirement.
Planning to work part-time in retirement? Want to see the impact of a career change? Test your personal scenarios with the SSA's retirement calculators to see how your benefits might change.
🔍 Read more: Still working past 65? The Social Security penalty hiding in plain sight
Step 5: Adjust for real-world factors
Raw benefit estimates don't tell the whole story. Several factors that can shrink your actual monthly deposits include:
Medicare premiums. Most retirees get their Part B premiums ($185 monthly in 2025) automatically deducted from their Social Security check. You could end up paying more or less depending on your earnings and other factors.
Taxes. Up to 85% of your benefits could be taxable depending on your total retirement income. Single filers start owing taxes on benefits with combined income over $25,000.
Inflation gap. While Social Security includes annual cost-of-living adjustments, they don't always cover real life. At 2.8%, the 2026 COLA will barely keep up with inflation.
Program solvency. Social Security could cut benefits 23% by 2033 if Congress doesn't act. While cuts are politically unlikely, it's wise to plan for reduced benefits.
Most experts recommend that Social Security cover about 40% of your retirement income needs. Knowing exactly what that 40% looks like can help you better plan for the other 60%.
🔍 Read more: 7 smart Social Security strategies that even seasoned retirees miss
Bottom line: Your Social Security reality check
Estimating your Social Security benefits isn't rocket science, but it's worth the effort. The 20 minutes you spend to set up your account, review your earnings, understand timing, run the numbers and plan for reality could be the most valuable time you invest in retirement planning this year.
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About the writer
Kat Aoki is a finance writer who's written thousands of articles to empower people to better understand technology, fintech, banking, lending and investments. Her expertise has been featured on sites like Lifewire and Finder, with bylines at top technology brands in the U.S. and Australia. Kat strives to help consumers and business owners make informed decisions and choose the right financial products for their needs.
Article edited by Kelly Suzan Waggoner
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