Hurricane Erin An East Coast Wave Danger; Storm Surge, Tropical Storm Warnings In North Carolina Jonathan Erdman August 20, 2025 at 1:05 AM Hurricane Erin is forecast to grow in size, and that will generate dangerous high surf and rip currents along the entire Eastern Seaboard.
- - Hurricane Erin An East Coast Wave Danger; Storm Surge, Tropical Storm Warnings In North Carolina
Jonathan Erdman August 20, 2025 at 1:05 AM
Hurricane Erin is forecast to grow in size, and that will generate dangerous high surf and rip currents along the entire Eastern Seaboard. It is also expected to push tropical storm winds and surge flooding into parts of North Carolina and the Virginia Tidewater.
(MORE: Erin Maps Tracker - Spaghetti Models, Forecasts, More)
Where Erin Is Now
Erin's center is currently less than 700 miles south-southeast of Hatteras, North Carolina, moving northwest.
While its maximum sustained winds may not be as extreme as they were the past several days, it remains a powerful hurricane. Just as importantly, though, the size of Erin's tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds has increased dramatically since last weekend, as expected.
Overnight, winds gusted to 53 mph in the Turks and Caicos, a group of islands southeast of the Bahamas, according to the National Hurricane Center.
(MORE: Why A Hurricane's Size Matters)
Current Wind FieldWatches And Warnings
Tropical storm and storm surge warnings have been issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina from Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound. This means tropical storm conditions and storm surge flooding are expected within the next 48 hours.
A tropical storm watch has been issued northward from Duck, North Carolina, to Cape Charles, Virginia. This means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
Tropical storm warnings and watches remain in effect in the Turks and Caicos and parts of the Bahamas, as can be seen in the map below.
Watch, WarningsPath, Intensity Forecast
As the forecast path graphic below shows, Erin's center will curl north, then northeastward between North Carolina and Bermuda and generally south of Atlantic Canada.
Erin is expected to remain a strong hurricane with some fluctuations in intensity possible. While wind shear is expected to cap off any further significant intensification, Erin's large and growing size means tropical storm force winds are increasingly possible in outer rainbands later this week either for the Outer Banks of North Carolina or for Bermuda. We even can't rule out a few stronger gusts making their way farther up the East Coast into the mid-Atlantic or even southeast New England.
That said, we do not expect Erin's strongest winds to come anywhere close to the East Coast or Bermuda.
Storm Info And Projected PathPotential U.S. Impacts
Storm Surge
Erin's large size means it will push water from the ocean toward coastal areas, leading to flooding of normally dry areas at high tide from the Virginia Tidewater to the coastal Carolinas.
This coastal flooding may begin as soon as late Wednesday afternoon's high tide in Charleston, South Carolina.
The high tide where coastal flooding may be most expansive and significant appears to be early Thursday evening's high tide from the southern Delmarva Peninsula and southern Chesapeake Bay into eastern North Carolina. That's when inundation may reach the values shown in the map below, flooding roads and possibly some properties, particularly in the Outer Banks.
The NWS office in Morehead City, North Carolina, said parts of Highway 12 in the Outer Banks are at risk of overwash and washouts beginning Tuesday, continuing into at least Thursday.
Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide may also occur Thursday and Friday farther north into coastal Delaware, New Jersey and Long Island.
Some coastal flooding may persist into Friday before water levels gradually recede this weekend.
Peak Storm Surge Forecast
High Surf, Rip Currents
Erin will generate life-threatening, dangerous high surf and rip currents all along the East Coast, from Florida to southern New England.
This will last through the weekend, even as Erin moves into the open water of the North Atlantic.
Monday, 60 to 70 rip current rescues were required at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.
Of all hurricane hazards, 16% of all fatalities come from rip currents and rough seas. Heed all advice from lifeguards, local officials and any warning flags flying at the beach.
If in doubt, don't wander into the surf on Atlantic beaches this week.
Wave Heights Forecast
Winds
To emphasize, we do not expect the core of Erin's strongest hurricane winds to affect any part of the U.S. East Coast, nor Bermuda.
However, given Erin's size, tropical storm force winds are increasingly possible in eastern North Carolina, even though the center will remain well offshore. These winds could arrive as soon as late Wednesday and continue into Thursday. These winds may down some tree limbs and could knock out power in a few areas.
There's also a small chance of at least a few stronger gusts farther up the Eastern Seaboard from the Delmarva Peninsula to southeast New England Thursday into Friday.
Odds Of Tropical Storm Winds
Rain
According to the National Hurricane Center, parts of eastern North Carolina could pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain in outer rainbands from Erin Wednesday night into Thursday.
This rainfall could add to the flooding from surge at high tide in this area.
Erin's History
Meteorologists first began watching the area of instability that eventually formed Hurricane Erin several days before the storm was named Monday of this past week.
The system remained a tropical storm as it traveled westward across the Atlantic, weakening slightly mid-week as it battled cooler waters.
Thanks to warmer waters in the western Atlantic, Erin began a period of explosive rapid intensification starting on Friday, going from a tropical storm to Category 5 in just under 30 hours, and from a Category 3 to a Category 5 in just under 6 hours.
Erin has also joined a rare group of only five hurricanes that have wind speeds of at least 145 mph by August 16 since 1970, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach. Erin is the first Category 5 hurricane since Milton and Beryl in 2024.
Erin began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle on Saturday, setting off a period of fluctuation in intensity and bringing the storm back to Category 4 intensity by Saturday evening.
While Erin has been skirting around islands in the Caribbean, a wind gust of 57 mph was recorded on the island Tortola in the British Virgin Islands Saturday evening, but sustained tropical storm force winds have remained to the north of the islands so far.
Erin dumped up to 6 inches of rain in Puerto Rico and up to 7 inches of rain in the U.S. Virgin Islands, according to the National Weather Service.
Jennifer Gray is a weather and climate writer for weather.com. She has been covering some of the world's biggest weather and climate stories for the last two decades. Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
Source: "AOL General News"
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