The AFC North has seen better days. The Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens rivalry has too.
Plenty of seasons, the AFC North is among the best divisions in the NFL. That's not the case this season. Every other division has at least two teams with a record over .500. The AFC North has none. Barring a tie, that will change Sunday when the 6-6 Ravens take on the 6-6 Steelers. It will also go a long way in determining who gets a playoff spot out of the AFC North, though the 4-8 Cincinnati Bengals somehow aren't dead yet in the race.
The Ravens have rallied from a 1-5 start to the season, but a 32-14 loss to the Bengals last week indicated they still have plenty of issues that might keep them from a deep playoff run. The Steelers have their issues too. They struggled on both sides of the ball in a 26-7 loss to the Bills, which led some home fans to start a chant to fire coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers and Ravens once battled many years for AFC supremacy, now they're just hoping for a win to stay relevant.
Baltimore is still favored to win the division, at 51.1% onDVOA's projectionsvs. 42.4% for the Steelers. The Steelers can flip those odds and then some with a win at Baltimore.According to NFL.com, the Steelers will be 61% to make the playoffs with a win and 16% with a loss. For the Ravens it's 81% with a win and 36% with a loss. The teams have similar strength of schedule down the stretch. The division will likely be decided if either team can sweep the other. They face each other again at Pittsburgh in Week 18.
Someone has to win the worst division in the NFL this season. We'll be closer to an answer after Sunday's showdown between the two teams tied for first place.
Here are the other Week 14 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture:
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions
Neither team is in the playoff field heading into Week 14. The winner of this Thursday night game won't be assured of making it to the postseason. But the loser will be in rough shape with four weeks to go.
It feels like a bit of an elimination game in the NFC picture. The 6-5-1 Cowboys have clawed themselves back into the picture, but because they got off to such a slow start, they can't afford a loss that drops them back to .500. They're ninth in the NFC playoff race and barely ahead of the 7-6 Panthers in 10th place.
The Lions being out of the current playoff bracket in December is a shock. But they're just 7-5. Another loss, especially to a fellow wild-card contender, would be a damaging blow.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts went from a 7-1 start tomaybe needing this win. They are tied with the Jaguars at 8-4 atop the division and the Texans are a game back at 7-5. The Colts' remaining schedule after this game: at Seahawks, vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans. That's a brutal stretch. Falling a game behind the Jaguars with many tough games remaining wouldn't be great for their playoff hopes.
The Jaguars have quietly climbed to four games above .500 and have won three in a row. Winning Sunday would increase their chances of making the playoffs to 96%, according to NFL.com.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
The Bears are currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and a win at Green Bay would be a sign that they can stay there. The 8-3-1 Packers are right behind the 9-3 Bears, and that Packers tie at Dallas early in the season eliminates a lot of the math concerning tiebreakers (which might be good for Chicago because they have two divisional losses, and the Packers have none). Chicago plays Green Bay in the late set of games on Sunday and plays the Packers again in Week 16. A loss wouldn't be a horrible blow to the Bears' chances of winning the division because they get the rematch at home, but a win would push them to a nice lead over the Packers with only four games left.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefshaters, this is a big game. If the Chiefs lose, their playoff chances would be down to 11%, according to NFL.com. But a win boosts them to 50%. This game looked like a Chiefs win a few weeks ago, but the Texans have gotten hot. Houston's defense has been the best in the NFL. The Texans have won four in a row and are in the AFC South race and also the wild-card race. A loss here would hurt in both, and especially for the Texans in the wild-card race because they would cede the head-to-head tiebreaker to Kansas City. They'd also be two games behind the winner of the Colts-Jaguars game.