It's the last UFC PPV card of the year, and the last of the ESPN broadcast era for the organization. At least it's going out with a bang. Like last month, we have two title fights on the line. But unlike last time, these fighters are all staying within their weight classes, so we have a cleaner look at data-driven analytics.
We'll break down both title fights, but also look for better value further down Saturday night's card.
Merab Dvalishvili (-425) vs. Petr Yan (+330)
Merab's moniker of "The Machine" is well earned, as he has one of the best gas tanks in MMA. Not only can he fight on all levels, he can pour on a pace that leaves opponents in retreat and/or ultimately giving up position.
While Yan is arguably the better technical striker and more likely to want the fight to spend time on the feet, it will be the first time in a long time Dvalishvili won't be at a large range disadvantage. And the last time these two fought, Dvalishvili landed 11 of 49 takedown attempts, while also doubling Yan's significant strikes landed.
While this may not be a lopsided wrestling match thanks to Yan's solid takedown defense and ability to get off the mat, I don't see anything in the numbers suggesting Merab's high volume and constant pressure won't win the day (again). You'll get a slightly better price on Dvalishvili and an over threshold, or by decision. Merab could be a side that will get steamed by parlays.
Best bet: Dvalishvili to win
Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs. Joshua Van (+200)
This one looks like a much closer matchup, but another one where the underdog will need to stay standing just to have a chance. Van's hands are crisp, showing extraordinary accuracy, plus better avoidance than the champ. But Pantoja's ground game is superior and likely to be utilized frequently — especially against a striker like Van.
That should play to the favor of the champ and also drive a favorable win prediction. But what's dragging down Pantoja's win probability is he's now north of 35, facing an opponent more than 10 years younger. That usually sways the models strongly, and in this case it's enough to show a little value on the dog.
Best bet: Small value lean on Van ML, but look for a Van +5.5-point prop, which also cashes if his hands finish it
Grant Dawson (-215) vs. Manuel Torres (+175)
I love a dominant wrestler, and Grant Dawnson spends more time in ground control than any fighter on the card. At 59% of Octagon time in ground control, that doesn't leave opponents much time to mount a counter-offensive. Admittedly, we have a very small sample size on Torres. So far, his numbers are strong — especially his striking — but his wrestling defense remains to be truly tested.
Look for Dawson to wrestle early and often. He doesn't like to spend more than 30 seconds at a distance, and he's willing to sequence multiple attempts to finally get someone down. Low sample size on Torres leaves room for risk, especially if he can defend multiple shots and unleash his dangerous striking. Torres has a puncher's chance, but the line is still affordable enough for the wrestler.
Best bet: Dawson to win
Fares Ziam (-135) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+115)
In a fight that might spend more time on the feet, we have a huge range advantage favoring Ziam, who also has superior striking accuracy and defense. Both men have amassed impressive wins, but minute-to-minute, Ziam has a much cleaner and more efficient game.
While standing at range, Sadykhov absorbs an abnormally high volume of strikes per minute. So over the course of a round, expect Ziam's long-range striking to keep scoring. Ziam is more likely to be the one to initiate takedowns, and his own takedown defense is above average. So this seems like an uphill battle for Sadykhov.
Best bet: Ziam to win