An active underwater volcano off the Oregon Coast that was predicted to erupt in 2025 is now expected to erupt mid-to-late 2026.
TheAxial Seamountvolcano is located nearly a mile beneath the sea, approximately 300 miles off the Oregon Coast, just west of Astoria and along the Juan de Fuca Ridge in the Pacific Ocean.
The underwater volcano has experienced around 50 eruptions during the last 800 years. It has had three eruptions in the last 30 years, happening in 1998, 2011 and 2015.
The volcanic activity coming from Axial Seamount in 2025 had scientists predicting an impending eruption. However, recent research and changes in volcanic activity now have scientists predicting it will erupt sometime in 2026.
Oregon State University researchersrecently announcedthey will be conducting a new experiment using the Axial Seamount to better understand changing volcanic activity and to more accurately predict volcanic eruptions.
Here's what to know.
Why do researchers believe an underwater volcano off the Oregon Coast will erupt in 2026?
Researchers at OSU's Hatfield Marine Science Center have been continuously monitoring the Axial Seamount's activity in real time by using theRegional Cabled Array, an ocean observatory that uses approximately 660 miles of undersea cables to constantly monitor activity with more than 140 instruments.
Bill Chadwick, a volcanologist and research professor at OSU, said their observations have revealed a pattern, and that the inflation threshold is close to where it erupted in 2015.
As 2025 comes to a close, while the inflation of Axial Seamount has reportedly been steady, the rate of seismicity has been relatively low, meaning "nothing is imminent," according to an Oct. 27 OSU College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences blog written by Chadwick and the University of North Carolina's Scott Nooner.
"At the current rate of inflation, we won't get to that higher inflation threshold until mid-to-late 2026," they wrote.
What new experiment will scientists be testing on Axial Seamount?
On Nov. 12, the OSU blog announced that researchers would be beginning a new experiment using data from the Regional Cabled Array with a "physics-based model."
They hope that with this new model, they will be able to accurately predict when Axial Seamount will erupt.
What will happen if Axial Seamount off the Oregon Coast erupts?
Even if the Axial Seamount volcano erupts in 2026, there is no danger to people.
While it is said the eruption could cause a series of small earthquakes, they aren't likely to be felt on land due to the volcano's depth and how far offshore it is.
The lava flows that come from Axial Seamount will also have no effect on the surface of the ocean and will only reshape the seafloor.
If the researcher's predictions come true, the underwater volcano will provide a better understanding of how to predict volcanic eruptions.
Ginnie Sandoval is the Oregon Connect reporter for the Statesman Journal.Sandoval can be reached atGSandoval@gannett.comor on X at@GinnieSandoval.
This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal:Axial Seamount volcano off Oregon Coast predicted to erupt in 2026