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- MLB awards update: Checking in on MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races at the season's midway point</p>
<p>Jake MintzJuly 17, 2025 at 11:45 PM</p>
<p>With the second half of the MLB regular season beginning Friday and a little more than two months of baseball left to play before October, it's the perfect time to take stock of the awards races.</p>
<p>Here's the latest on the MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races in the American League and National League, with the top three contenders for each piece of hardware as the second half begins.</p>
<p>American League MVP1. Aaron Judge, Yankees2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners3. Tarik Skubal, Tigers</p>
<p>Cal Raleigh was the talk of All-Star week. He won the Home Run Derby in emphatic fashion alongside his whole family. Nobody could stop talking about his butt or the fact that he entered the break with 38 home runs as a gosh-darn catcher.</p>
<p>And yet, this is still Aaron Judge's award to lose. The Yankees' captain, who has won two of the past three AL MVP awards, is in the middle of his best offensive season yet. Judge is currently on pace for 12.3 WAR, according to FanGraphs. If he pulls that off, it would be the most valuable season since Barry Bonds in 2002. Take out Bonds, and you have to go all the way back to 1927 with Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig.</p>
<p>That said, there's a world in which Raleigh chases down Judge, something that seemed impossible a few months ago. He has already delivered a historic offensive season for a catcher while providing borderline elite defense behind the dish. If Raleigh maintains this level and Judge tails off just a little, the Big Dumper has a chance.</p>
<p>Behind those two, it's a hodgepodge on the offensive side, so I'll put Skubal at No. 3. A pitcher (non-Ohtani division) hasn't finished top-three in MVP voting since Clayton Kershaw won the NL award in 2014. But Skubal is, unequivocally, the best pitcher on planet Earth, and he might be able to take advantage of a relative down year from Bobby Witt Jr. to sneak his way in as a finalist.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Bobby Witt Jr., Jeremy Peña, Byron Buxton, José Ramírez</p>
<p>Can anyone overtake Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani for this year's MVP? (Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports) (Jonathan Castro/Yahoo Sports)National League MVP1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs3. Juan Soto, Mets</p>
<p>Now that Ohtani is, you know, pitching and hitting at the same time again, it's going to be hard to deny the man his fourth consecutive MVP award. Statistically, Ohtani's bat has taken a small step back from last year, when he went 50/50, hit .310 and finished with an adjusted OPS 86% better than league average. This season, he's hitting "only" .276 and is on pace for "only" 54 home runs and 20 steals. But his return to the mound — he has allowed one run in nine innings across five outings so far — is the obvious difference-maker.</p>
<p>Based on performance thus far, second place has to be Crow-Armstrong. The young, gregarious Cubs center fielder has exploded onto the scene this season with an exhilarating power-speed combo. PCA would be a game-changer even if he were a bad hitter; that's how good his glove is in center. Instead, he has taken a massive step forward with the bat this season, and his 25 home runs are tied for fourth in the National League.</p>
<p>Third, I've got non-All-Star Juan Soto, but a number of other players would've been perfectly defensible. Soto's overall numbers — which caused his snubbage from the All-Star Game — remain anchored by his uncharacteristically slow start. Those struggles also appear to have been remedied, as Soto has been on fire the past two months. I expect him to keep cooking.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Will Smith, Kyle Tucker, James Wood, Pete Alonso</p>
<p>AL Cy Young1. Tarik Skubal, Tigers2. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox3. Hunter Brown, Astros</p>
<p>Statistically, this is closer than you'd think, given Skubal's continued ascension to Best Pitcher On Earth status. Crochet actually had more innings and more strikeouts than his fellow southpaw (in one more start) in the first half. They have identical 2.23 ERAs. And Skubal has Crochet handled in regard to free passes (16 walks to 34).</p>
<p>Right now, Skubal gets the edge because leading qualified starters in both walk rate and strikeout rate is absolutely outrageous. In many other seasons, Brown might challenge for the top spot, but this feels like a two-horse race. Still, keep an eye on Jacob deGrom; his strikeout numbers have ticked up over the course of the year as he continues to ramp back up.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Kris Bubic</p>
<p>NL Cy Young1. Zack Wheeler, Phillies2. Paul Skenes, Pirates3. Logan Webb, Giants</p>
<p>Another two-man showdown, this one pits the young buck against the old dog. Wheeler has the edge in innings per start, WHIP, strikeout rate and walk rate. Skenes has him beat on ERA and home run rate. In another era, Skenes having just four wins might tank his Cy Young case, but today's awards voters won't hold Pittsburgh's embarrassing offense against him.</p>
<p>I think this ends up being extremely close between two extremely deserving candidates. But Wheeler gets the tiebreaker, fair or not, because he's the best pitcher of this era to never win a Cy Young, and Skenes should have ample time to get his.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Robbie Ray, Christopher Sánchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Matthew Boyd</p>
<p>AL Rookie of the Year1. Jacob Wilson, A's2. Nick Kurtz, A's3. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox</p>
<p>A battle between teammates in Yolo County! The A's stink, but their offense has some exciting pieces to build around. Wilson surprisingly beat Bobby Witt Jr. in All-Star fan voting, becoming the first rookie in MLB history to start at shortstop in the Midsummer Classic. He has the second-best batting average in baseball behind Judge and is playing sufficient defense at the most crucial infield spot.</p>
<p>Kurtz is the only AL rookie with a higher OPS and more homers than Wilson. The towering slugger has played 29 fewer games than his teammate, so the gap between the two could close over time.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Roman Anthony, Cam Smith, Noah Cameron, Jasson Domínguez</p>
<p>NL Rookie of the Year1. Drake Baldwin, Braves2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers3. Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers</p>
<p>Baldwin leads all NL rookie position players in batting average, OPS and fWAR. He has also been an average defensive player, which is very, very impressive for a first-year catcher. The biggest thing holding Baldwin back is that he's essentially splitting catching duties with Sean Murphy, and Atlanta's DH spot is clogged up by the plodding Marcel Ozuna. A Murphy trade at the deadline might give Baldwin a stronger path to this NL award.</p>
<p>Misiorowski has made just five starts — did you hear he made the All-Star Game? — but he has been so good in those outings while flashing so much potential that it's hard not to consider him for NL ROY. At this pace, he'll finish with around 18 starts, which might be enough in a relatively weak field if he keeps blowing people's doors off.</p>
<p>Dark horses: Caleb Durbin, Cade Horton, Augustin Ramírez, Isaac Collins</p>
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