Every game matters at this point in the season as teams fight for playoff position and chase division titles. Three games on Thanksgiving kicked off Week 13 and two of those games saw significant shifts in playoff odds with both theKansas City Chiefsand Baltimore Ravens suffering costly losses.
Here's how the NFL playoff picture looks like entering Black Friday:
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2):Up next — At Carolina Panthers on SundayNotable odds:At 58%, L.A. has the highest likelihood of any division leader in the NFL to clinch the No. 1 seed in its conference, perThe Athletic's playoff simulator.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3):Up next — vs. Chicago Bears on FridayNotable odds:Philly has an iron grip on the NFC East, but its recent defeat vs. Dallas cost it control of the No. 1 seed. The Eagles have a 97% and 98% likelihood of winning the East, per The Athletic andESPN'srespective postseason projections.
3. Chicago Bears (8-3):Up next — vs. Philadelphia Eagles on FridayNotable odds:They are still long shots to win the NFC North as The Athletic pegs the Bears with a 16% probability of winning the division while ESPN is more optimistic at 24%.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5):Up next — vs. Arizona Cardinals on SundayNotable odds:NFL.comand ESPN each give the Bucs an 84% chance to make the playoffs.
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-3):Up next — vs. Minnesota Vikings on SundayNotable odds:87% of clinching a playoff berth, per ESPN, is on the low end of prognostications.
6. Green Bay Packers (8-3-1):Up next — vs. Chicago Bears in Week 14Notable odds:Favorites to win the NFC North at 73%, per The Athletic.
7. San Francisco 49ers (8-4):Up next — At Cleveland Browns on SundayNotable odds:Strong playoff favorites at 89%, per The Athletic.
Still in the NFC picture
8. Detroit Lions (7-5):Up next — vs. Dallas Cowboys in Week 14.Notable odds:55% to make the playoffs, but down to 10% to win the division, per The Athletic.
9. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1):Up next — At Detroit Lions in Week 14.Notable odds:24% to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic.
10. Carolina Panthers (6-6):Up next — vs. Los Angeles Rams on SundayNotable odds:25% to make the playoffs, 24% to win the division, per The Athletic.
1. New England Patriots (10-2):Up next — vs. New York Giants on MondayNotable odds:With a 2.5-game edge over the Bills, the Patriots are closing in on securing the AFC East title, at 93% to win it. And they have by far the highest odds of anyone to grab the No. 1 seed in the AFC, at 56%, according to The Athletic.
2. Denver Broncos (9-2):Up next — At Washington Commanders on SundayNotable odds:With another Chiefs loss, Denver is an even heavier favorite to win the AFC West crown, at 78%, along with a 26% probability of earning the AFC's No. 1 seed, per The Athletic.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3):Up next — vs. Houston Texans on SundayNotable odds:The Colts are still a 64% favorite, per The Athletic. to win the AFC South despite just a one-game lead over the Jaguars. Even better news for Indy, The Athletic has them at 89% likely to make the playoffs.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5):Up next — vs. Buffalo Bills on SundayNotable odds:Pittsburgh entered the week at 38% to make the playoffs, according to NFL.com, but that increases afterBaltimore's surprising loss to the Bengals on Thanksgiving.
5. Buffalo Bills (7-4):Up next — At Pittsburgh Steelers on SundayNotable odds:While Buffalo's chances at catching up to New England to win the division title are slim (8% according to The Athletic), the Bills are still very likely to qualify for the postseason, at 83%.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4):Up next — At Tennessee Titans on SundayNotable odds:The Jags are in good shape to make the playoffs, at 80% according to The Athletic, and they still have some hope of winning the AFC South, at 27%.
7. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4):Up next — vs. Las Vegas Raiders on SundayNotable odds:The Chargers still have favorable 62% odds of making the playoffs, per The Athletic, but they're a long shot to catch Denver for the division title, at 16%.
Still in the AFC picture
8. Baltimore Ravens (6-6):Up next — vs. Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 14Notable odds:Baltimore's playoff odds took a big hit with Thursday's loss to the Bengals. According to NFL.com, the Ravens dropped from 69% to 55% postseason probability. The path to a division title also becomes more difficult.
9. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6):Up next — vs. Houston Texans in Week 14Notable odds:Kansas City's Thanksgiving loss to the Cowboys was costly. NFL.com's model shows the Chiefs fell from 52% to 35% to make the postseason. At 3.5 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West, hopes of a division title are effectively down the drain.